By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sport Betting Mathematics
First capture by the WayBack Machine (web.archive.org) July 1, 2014.
The American professional football (NFL) has just started (the 2013 preseason). I saw also some famous European football proper teams (Real Madrid, AC Milan, Chelsea, Juventus, Manchester United) playing warm-ups in the United States (summer of 2013). It must be a regular competition now, as advertised and broadcast on U.S. television. It is known as the International Champions Cup and Guiness Beer pays one million dollars to the winner. I guess this is high-time for 1X2 pools!
A Facebook Friend of mine (European) is a big-time sport fan, also with a keen interest in sports betting. He posted in the Messages section of my Facebook:
- “Reduced 1,X,2 systems'. There's a site: LOSMILLIONES.COM, from a Greek man that lives in Spain, that claims to have the most complete software to work with 1X2 games, lotto, Euromillions, etc. The cost of the 1X2 program is around 100 euros. Do you have software to make 'developments' with the following 13 soccer selections?”
Betting software. Football tips, tips over, under, correct score, half / time 2017 all leagues download:http://www.totofortuna.it/scarica-software-scommesse. BetBotPRO is a fully approved Betfair & Betdaq API solution software that runs on your computer and connects directly to the Betfair or Betdaq servers. The bot will move sequentially through the days.
I think by “develop” he meant expand those combined selections on his playing grid to “full combinations”. In that particular case: 5 singles, 7 doubles, 1 triple expand (“develop”) to 384 single variants (columns, or single combinations). Calculation: 1^5 * 2^7 * 3^1 = 1 * 128 * 3 = 384 (^ represents the raise-to-power operator).
There is absolutely no doubt that I was the first to apply the results of previous games to predicting future games. I did it first as a teenager in Romania, starting in the 1960s. I only shared with very, very few people back then. I made the sport betting strategy public on my website in 2000 while in USA. Nobody else has done anything similar before that date. All strategies or software applicable to sports as in my predicting methods appeared a few years after I published my theory. I made a good sum of money with my theory/strategy in 1985 as a refugee in former Yugoslavia: Lottery, Gambling Experiences: Robbed of 1X2 Prize Money.
- The fundamentals of my sports betting strategy are the most effective statistics-wise. It is based on the cold fact that the teams play differently at home compared to away. Therefore, the best sports-prediction strategy should pit the home record of the home team against the away record of the visiting team. Just for starters.
- Next, the wins of the home team are aggregated with the losses of the road team. This total is divided by total games played by the two teams (all games of the home team at home, plus all games of the visiting team on the road). That is the percentage for the 1 prognostication sign; that's the percentage for a home team win.
- Then, the wins of the visiting team on the road are aggregated with the losses of the home team at home. This total is divided by total games played by the two teams (all games of the home team at home, plus all games of the visiting team on the road). That is the percentage for the 2 prognostication sign; that's the percentage for a visiting team win.
- Finally, the ties of the home team are aggregated with the ties of the road team. This total is divided by total games played by the two teams (all games of the home team at home, plus all games of the visiting team on the road). That is the percentage for the X prognostication sign; that's the percentage for a tie (draw).
The following tables are illustrative –
The sign 1 is mandatory. But 2 should be taken into consideration, as the visiting team has the tendency to win on the road.
In the American pro football, the tie (draw) is a very rare event. Also, the score represents the main feature in sports betting. Therefore, points scored by the home team at home are pitted against points allowed by the visiting team on the road – and vice versa. The percentages will be for points scored versus points allowed.
Of course, the strategy does NOT guarantee 100% success rate. As I have stressed so many times, absolute certainty is absolute absurdity mathematically. The strategy is strengthened if we keep records of success/failure for every team – separated by home records and road records. For example, I write a + (plus) if the team's result was in accordance with the prognostication. I place – (minus) preceded by 1, X, or 2 if the team's result failed the prognostication. For example, 2– means the team lost at home (or won on the road), although the prognostication was different. That's the surprisability chart. All surprise-ability streaks have an end (usually, they are short).
The only way to beat this unique strategy is to ”fix” the games, as a bunch of criminals did a few years ago in Europe. Sports betting, especially in soccer, depends 99% on high levels of surprise-prone. That is, a few upsets are sine qua non in every contest (week or concours). Like in this memory of mine of the early 1980s as a 1X2 theoretician and player: Juventus – Sampdoria: 0 – 1 (a huge 2 in sports prognostication all over Europe). I DID get that result (played 1 2), but I missed 2 semi-surprises; otherwise, the prize would have changed my life dramatically... I and others around me speculated that the game was fixed by mafia!
Generating full 1X2 systems, as in my Facebook friend's request was not well represented in my sports software. The algorithms, however, require highest level of programming skills. One difficulty is the transposition of rows (lines) and columns. My lottery software generates the output (e.g. combinations) horizontally.
By contrast, the 1X2 soccer pools are generated vertically. As you can see in the playing grid (or ticket, or coupon) above, the games go from top to bottom. Thus, it was necessary to write software that also transposes the output files created by the Generate 1X2 Systems function. The transposed file will display column-major, instead of row-major (as in most cases).
The result is a program named Generate1X2 (see screenshots below).
The software takes an input file in text format. The input files can have from 2 to 16 games (in order to accommodate NFL games as well). The strict formatting requirements for the input files:
The 1,X,2 symbols separated by commas only, NO spaces between them; NO blank spaces between lines.
Here is the input file for 13 games:
It is recommended to open this file first and edit it to suit your needs. Then Save File As under a different name that makes sense. For example, I created an input file as per my Friend's ticket: 5s7d1t.1x2 (5 singles, 7 doubles, 1 Triple):
The program takes data in the input file and generates precisely all full systems for the respective parameters. For example, the input game file 5Doubles.1X2 generates 32 full 1X2 systems (2 ^ 5 variants):
There are also a few reduced 1X2 systems that satisfy the minus 1 guarantee. That is, the systems guarantee that, IF all games were chosen correctly, only one game will be missed at worst.
The R: Select Reduced Random Variants function is especially useful. The randomization in the generating of variants offers better chance to hit higher prizes compared to lexicographically reduced 1,X,2 systems.
Free Betting Software
The new 1X2 system software was incorporated in BrightS sports betting software, version 2.1, August 2013. The sport betting software in general is presented on this Web page:
Football Betting Software Review
- Sports Betting Software.
- The main repository of sports software:
- Download Sports Betting Software, Excel Spreadsheets, Betting Systems.
Important sports links
- Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheets, Systems, Parlays.
- Analysis of of SPORTS.XLS, the Sports Betting Spreadsheet.
- Sports Betting System Based on Statistics for Calcio, American Football.
- Pronostici Italian Soccer, Toto Calcio, Totocalcio, Serie A, 1X2.
- Winning Football Teams, Horse Trifectas, Bell, Gauss Curve.
- There is also a working spreadsheet, where the final calculations are done.
- There are detailed steps on how to add data (on paper or in a spreadsheet) and how to do the calculations (or let the macros do the calculations: Sports Betting, Gambling Theory of Sport, Bet Systems, Software, Spreadsheets.
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